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Author Topic: The JSE - a dog's view  (Read 111319 times)

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Offline Dwerg

Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4360 on: December 08, 2017, 11:08:58 am »
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Offline Bundu

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4361 on: December 08, 2017, 11:40:46 am »
https://www.fin24.com/Companies/Retail/jse-not-halting-trade-despite-steinhoff-bloodbath-20171208

And jumped over 70% after that news

yes, I had some Abils and it's a fuckup if they suspend trade - you can't even sell at a loss to write off against tax

SNH is now out of the TOP40, so AFAIK many funds HAVE to sell, even if they believe it is under valued
 

Offline Offshore

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4362 on: December 08, 2017, 11:50:37 am »
I am not too keen in getting involved here until all the Issues are clear and I know what the Road ahead looks like. A lot can still happen here.


“The other element is that there are clearly criminal and civil legal actions that could be brought,” Saville concludes. “Steinhoff has issued a whole lot of equity on the back of numbers that are manufactured. The board would have been aware of these structures and they were issuing equity and raising debt on the back of numbers that were simply not true. And that’s criminal.”

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Offline LeonDude

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4363 on: December 12, 2017, 12:30:40 pm »
I've just bought a few Steinhoff.
Guess where I'm doing my xmas shopping this year.
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Offline Dwerg

Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4364 on: December 12, 2017, 12:37:12 pm »
I've just bought a few Steinhoff.
Guess where I'm doing my xmas shopping this year.

Recovering today. Don't be too depressed just yet  ;)
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Offline heinzz

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4365 on: December 12, 2017, 12:49:30 pm »
SNH loop mooi. Het met gister se koop my 160k ongerealiseerde verlies van laasweek 3 keer terug gemaak. As hy naby R18 kom groet ek vir Christo ongeag hoeveel vertroue ek in hom het.
« Last Edit: December 12, 2017, 12:52:03 pm by heinzz »
 

Offline nielvn

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4366 on: December 13, 2017, 07:53:04 pm »
SNH loop mooi. Het met gister se koop my 160k ongerealiseerde verlies van laasweek 3 keer terug gemaak. As hy naby R18 kom groet ek vir Christo ongeag hoeveel vertroue ek in hom het.

 :laughing4: mooi mater
 

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4367 on: December 14, 2017, 08:14:31 am »
SNH loop mooi. Het met gister se koop my 160k ongerealiseerde verlies van laasweek 3 keer terug gemaak. As hy naby R18 kom groet ek vir Christo ongeag hoeveel vertroue ek in hom het.

 :laughing4: mooi mater
Maar sluit toe nader aan R10.

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Offline MegaPix

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4368 on: December 14, 2017, 10:02:46 am »
I play the SHAREFORUM competition where you get R100,000 every month to trade with.  I bought Capitec every month.  Had about 12% growth over the 11 months.
Tuesday I sold it and bought STEINHOFF at 829
I am now in the TOP 12 out of 361 playing.
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Offline Gene

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4369 on: December 16, 2017, 04:13:22 am »
Bought KIO in march this year, gained 430%, should i sell or keep till next year?
 

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4370 on: December 21, 2017, 09:46:36 pm »
Is there anyone here who would be so kind to translate the following SENS posting into English?
I have no "holding" in either Steinhoff or Sanlam. I am, in fact, a complete investment novice. I am treating the Steinhoff saga as an educational opportunity. I am particularly interested in definitons / translations of, amongst others:
- mark-to-market (“MTM”) values
- non-participating policyholder portfolios
- best estimate potential impact
- discretionary margins held by the Group for such events

Are the potential losses of 1.1% and/or 2.1% in client portfolios really insignificant in cases where one pays as much (or more) in annual fees to fund managers?

-- Start SENS ---

Thu 21 Dec 2017, 15:13       Sanlam - exposure to Steinhoff      
View SENS
The Sanlam Group has exposure to Steinhoff equity and debt instruments (“Steinhoff instruments”) in on-balance sheet policyholder and shareholder portfolios, as well as investment portfolios managed on behalf of third party clients. Given recent developments around Steinhoff and the consequential decline in the traded values of Steinhoff instruments, the potential impact on the Group’s key financial results from exposure to Steinhoff instruments is provided in this announcement. All information is indicative based on current mark-to-market (“MTM”) values and does not present actual or potential realised losses.

The information is based on the closing prices of Steinhoff instruments on Wednesday, 20 December 2017 relative to closing prices on Friday, 1 December 2017. We are actively managing the Group’s exposure and the potential impact outlined below may therefore not realise.

Summary of exposures
The Group’s exposure to Steinhoff instruments originated from normal course of business transactions, with many of the positions in place for a number of years. The Group’s exposure to debt and equity instruments issued by the Steinhoff Group is largely reflective of Steinhoff’s weighting in the local investment markets and Sanlam’s size as an institutional investor.

The Group has exposure to Steinhoff instruments in the following Sanlam products and portfolios:
* Steinhoff equities are included in the JSE/FTSE Swix benchmark used for the equity component of the South African capital portfolios;
* Steinhoff equities serve as partial security for some of the loans granted by the collateralised lending business;
* The non-participating policyholder portfolios have exposure to local and international debt instruments; and
* Linked and market-related policyholder funds and third party investment portfolios hold Steinhoff equities as part of any equity component included in the portfolios’ mandates that are benchmarked to the JSE/FTSE Swix or All Share indices.

The equity exposures were in general in line with or slightly above Steinhoff’s benchmark index weighting on 1 December 2017. The direct debt exposures were also in line with the Group’s risk management framework.

Potential financial impact on shareholder’s fund
The best estimate potential impact on the Group’s 2017 and future earnings is not significant:
* The decline in the value of Steinhoff shares held in the capital portfolios is to a large extent protected by the equity hedges in place. The maximum exposure amounts to some R175 million after tax on the Group’s net investment return.
* Allowing for the estimated value of security held in respect of collateralised loans, the best estimate potential exposure amounts to some R230 million after tax on the Group’s net result from financial services. The maximum exposure, attaching no value to any security held, amounts to R580 million after tax.
* The non-participating policyholder portfolios have exposure to foreign debt instruments of R358 million, which currently reflects an unrealised MTM decline of R160 million. The non-participating policyholder portfolios also have exposure to South African debt instruments of R771 million. These instruments are illiquid and currently do not reflect significant MTM changes based on last traded values. The MTM decline from these exposures will be absorbed by more than R500 million of discretionary margins held by the Group for such events. In the absence of actual defaults, the MTM declines will reverse up to the maturity date of the instruments. The utilisation of these margins will not affect Sanlam’s Group Equity Value, as no value has been placed thereon in the Embedded Value of Covered Business.
* The exposure to Steinhoff instruments in the other policyholder and third party portfolios managed by Sanlam Investments amounted to only some 1.2% of assets under management. The potential impact on Sanlam Investments’ recurring net result from financial services is less than R25 million per annum.

Impact on clients’ investment return The potential impact on Sanlam clients’ investment returns will vary depending on each individual portfolio’s exposure to different asset classes. In a typical balanced portfolio, the Steinhoff exposure would have accounted for approximately 1.1% of the portfolio assets on 1 December 2017 and its share price movement up to Wednesday, 20 December 2017 would have an approximate 1% negative effect on the annual return of the portfolio. The negative impact on the return of a South African Swix Equity index fund would be approximately 2.1%.

Solvency and dividends
The above potential financial effects on net asset value and earnings will only have a marginal effect on the Group’s solvency ratio without impacting our dividend payment capability.

Shareholders are advised that this is not a profit forecast as per paragraphs 8.35 to 8.44 of the JSE Limited Listings Requirements.
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Offline Renrew

Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4371 on: December 21, 2017, 10:13:21 pm »
Who all boughtt SNH, how many shares and at what price? Curious to see who else Is taking a bit of a calculated gamble  :imaposer:

So the SOTP actual share price should be about R25 conservatively, if they push through their serious debt/lender woes, some stand to make a buck or two...
« Last Edit: December 21, 2017, 10:17:32 pm by Renrew »
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Offline Renrew

Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4372 on: December 21, 2017, 10:27:48 pm »
I found this quite disturbing:

http://www.visualcapitalist.com/market-complexity-trigger-next-crash/

Thoughts?

PS - It’s an interesting read, so check it if you’re into this stuff :thumleft:
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Offline Bundu

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4373 on: December 22, 2017, 12:48:31 pm »
yes, SNH can't be worth what it's priced at presently, except if they lied and stole from day1, which I very much doubt - whether a fair price is R20 or R25, nobody, except for maybe Markus Jooste knows at this stage, but I see many people are now going after him - rightly so, there have to be consequences for what he has done - hopefully very serious ones!

There will always be people that forecast a serious crash and when it happens, the few that just did so, will have been right, mostly by chance.

A crash, does not destroy the companies underlying value, provided reporting was accurate.

The average PE of the JSE is around 17 or 18 now, I believe, which is a bit above the standard of 15 IIRC, but NPN is a massive part of that and their value seems to be growing better than forecast, so they should grow into a more acceptable PE quickly
 

Offline Bundu

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4374 on: January 06, 2018, 04:40:07 pm »
this oke seems quite positive on SNH....

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4135671-steinhoff-international-holdings-n-v-strategic-analysis-blood-streets?auth_param=bp73l:1d517j5:c0512c13b04053ec7aa173dfca2e2787&uprof=46

"I expect a capital loss due to inadequate reporting of potential bad debts to amount to about 40% of previously reported 2016 capital but originating mostly 2015 and earlier. The expected loss in capital indicates that a share price of around ZAR4000c would be sustainable, but due to a loss of confidence and negative sentiment, I further discount it to around ZAR3000c. I expect the share to recover above ZAR2000c after the audited financial information is made available and expect the ZAR3000c level to be reached within 4-6 weeks thereafter."
 

Offline Bundu

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4375 on: January 12, 2018, 07:18:31 pm »
 

Offline Bwana

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4376 on: January 13, 2018, 08:03:23 am »
Were does this leave minority investers/shareholders if they split ie public.
 

Offline Bundu

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Re: The JSE - a dog's view
« Reply #4377 on: January 13, 2018, 08:19:56 am »
Were does this leave minority investers/shareholders if they split ie public.

I think all shareholders are treated the same and are normally last in line to recover any money