I think the new AT's primary target markets are Italy, France and Spain. That's the countries where the AT meets the buyers taste, the countries where large "Enduro" bikes like the old AT and XTZ750 as well as all the large singles were and are popular. There it's more about the bikes image than the actual capabilities.
Germans or Brits love to pry the bikes apart in their magazines, pit them against each other in tests and research elaborately why five millimetres more or less suspension travel make all the difference. Finally the journalists declare a winner (usually BMW) and that's what Otto Normalbiker goes and gets. Regardless if it's the bike he actually needs or not

I see the AT competing primarily against the Triumph Tiger 800XCX and maybe - maybe the F800GS because it's in the same price segment of the market.
I don't se it as a competitor for the Über Adventure bikes. Of course there will be people strapping on panniers and top cases and fitting boxes full of accessories and ride them through Africa but I see the future of most of them transporting wifes or girlfriends to cafés in St. Tropez or Estepona.
Don't get me wrong. I don't think it's a glitz bike which will only be good to go over Kloof Nek to Café Caprice. Absolutely not. But I think it's packing the sex appeal of an old school Dakar racer to look good exactly there.
South Africa is not the primary target market for these bikes. The south of Europe is and if the buyers love them there (likely without ever taking them off road) they will be around for a while. They seem to be capable medium / large dual sport bikes. A nice bonus for the local buyers and those who will actually go and travel on them.