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No, of course not, racers are animals by nature but they're getting penalized for exceeding max speed limits so there's an incentive to keep it in the "safety" zone. How quickly they get to 180 will obviously change but that risk is lower, surely? There's only so much that can be extracted from a 450 motor and they're finding that limit now.
Why do you say that? Is there high attrition rate this year? Doesn't seem so at all - but admittedly I'm not up to speed. It seems only Yamaha's have problem - nothing dramatic (at least engine wise) with KTM, Husky's and Hondas. Maybe Yamaha should finally enter 21st century and put 6 speed gearbox on their 450, like all the competitors did...
From where I sit 450s are more than capable of all of this. It's been few years now when most of the teams run the whole event on one engine, while at the introduction of 450s most were changing engines half way through.
What makes you think that 450 engines are not up to this kind of job?
I agree. The current crop of 450 engines are amazing jewels of engineering. Last year not one KTM engine across the entire field failed. But here's a little bit of insight from a guy on ADVrider who has a Dakar under his belt and not only knows alot about the progression of the the Rally bike from the big litre class monsters to the 450's, but owns them too...
https://advrider.com/f/threads/2021-saudi-dakar-official-coverage-thread-covid-resistant-f5irehose.1481846/page-161#post-41579819
I've been lucky to ride and/or own a few generations of RFR, including 660, 690, and the first two generations of 450. Since it is the rest day and we have nothing better to do, I'll share my thoughts.
The 660 is a rough and ready hot-rod. The motor is a bit brutal, the build quality is spotty to be generous, and they are an absolute blast to ride. It is loud, coarse, mean, and a bit unforgiving.
The 690 is a huge step forward in refinement. Lots of bespoke parts, much tidier packaging, and at least the first version (a 654cc displacement) was more mellow. That doesn't mean it was slow, just it didn't have a huge step in power as it came on song. The defining characteristic is stability- it will hold a line where an enduro bike is wagging all around.
The first gen 450 is a 690 with a smaller motor slotted in. I imagined that would be a step back, but that isn't actually my experience as a racebike. The bike clearly handles better as a 450, maybe a little because of weight but I think more because of rotating mass. It's more playful, and for me, it's easier to race. The 450 begs to be ridden aggressively where the 690 demands more respect. In terrain that is even semi-technical, I am willing to bet I'd go quicker on the 450 than I will on the same motorcycle with a 690 motor in it. Much like 250 MXers often set competitive 450 lap times with an open track, I think the smaller motor doesn't necessarily equate to less speed on course.
Given my experience riding the various bikes, I do not believe that the 450 rule really slowed people down much- to the contrary, I think it opened up a more aggressive riding style than was possible on the bigger bikes. When coupled with the change to South America, where the terrain was more technical as well... I think it is fair to say things moved along. I agree the move to 450 helped get more manufacturers and teams in the mix, which can only be a good thing.
Finally, I was lucky to buy Skyler's 2019 bike before this race to help him fund his adventure.
I don't have much time on it yet, but it immediately feels compact, tight, and fast. This one is an ex-factory bike, so it has 52mm forks and other goodies, and if you go faster than seems reasonable, it feels magical. On the other hand, if you slow down, it punishes you. I'm really excited to get to know it better.
I have no time on the latest generation RFR, but everyone says the motor is better up high (but worse down low), and that the chassis took another step toward being even more compact, again in response to more technical stages.
There will be a new RFR this year, in the "Up Front" show they avoid a clear shot but from the little you can see, it appears the new bike may not be a trellis frame. Will be interesting to see what they come out with.
I've spent time around the current Yamaha and Honda, but never ridden them. The Yamaha is very much an MX'er with a lot of energy put in to make it work as a rallybike. The Honda is MotoGP meets Dualsport- incredible attention to detail, and no expense spared. The kickstand is carbon fiber, for example. It looks amazing.
Finally, I do think there is a "spiritual" connection between dakar bikes and adventure bikes. They share exactly no parts, but some styling queues, and I think customers (including me!) feel like they might be Meoni when they slide their adventure bike up a dirt road. For a moment they are the star of the rally, even if there is no one there to witness it.
So, the bottom line is that the current 450's are durable, safer for the rider and very very quick.
The capacity limit was brought down to make them safer. The contemporary thinking being that speed was the danger. It wasn't, the irony was that the average speeds hardly moved even as the terrain became far more technical. Making them smaller and lighter made them safer and easier to ride and ultimately quicker to ride. However it has to be said that todays 450's are pumping out 75hp, only 25hp less than Meoni's Daka winning 950cc KTM!
I would bet that no other capacity of bike in the current format of rally would be quicker. Those monsters of yesteryear are simply too heavy and even the 690 class are still just not nimble enough.